Apple and Samsung Face Slower Smartphone Growth in 2025 Amid Tariffs and Weak Demand

Counterpoint Research has revised its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast down to 1.9% from a previously estimated 4.2%. The adjustment stems primarily from renewed uncertainties around U.S. tariff policy, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. Although smartphones were exempted from the tariffs, the looming risk has prompted caution among analysts.

Apple’s shipments are now projected to grow by just 2.5% in 2025, a drop from the previous 4% estimate. Samsung is expected to see flat shipment numbers, revised down from a forecasted 1.7% increase. The downturn is not solely due to tariffs; weakened consumer demand in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia has also contributed significantly, according to Counterpoint Associate Director Liz Lee.

Apple’s performance will be influenced by the iPhone 16 lineup and its increasing focus on emerging markets where premium models are gaining traction. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions over Apple’s manufacturing in India have added complexity, especially after Trump criticized the company’s shift away from U.S.-based production.

In contrast, Huawei is expected to achieve 11% shipment growth in 2025, benefiting from eased supply chain issues and strong demand in China, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segments, thanks to recent semiconductor advancements.

Shipments represent the volume of smartphones vendors send to retailers and are often used as an indicator of anticipated market demand.